Amid a tumultuous week for the No. 2 Michigan football team — even as a bye week once appeared to assure a calm moment of downtime — junior quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s newest big moment has slipped through the cracks.
Even as rumors and allegations swirl surrounding the Wolverines’ sign-stealing scandal, McCarthy climbed to the top of Vegas’ Heisman rankings after Michigan’s 49-0 trouncing of Michigan State. McCarthy currently sits atop four major betting services Heisman futures odds.
Nevertheless, McCarthy rejected any interest in the race earlier this week. Instead, he affirmed on Monday that his focuses are set on loftier goals.
“It’s a tremendous honor, but at the end of the day I couldn’t care less about that,” McCarthy said. “I don’t really care about trophies, I care about championships and that’s the same thing that this entire team cares about. It’s a tremendous honor, but we’re going to still focus on our goals and getting better every single day.”
McCarthy’s words, while noble, don’t tell the whole story. Because as the Wolverines sit at 8-0, their game plan has hardly centered around amplifying McCarthy’s numbers.
The signal caller currently sits at 33rd in the country in total yards thrown, with 1799. He lags behind at an incredible 63rd in average completions per game. And to top it off, McCarthy is 20th in the nation with an average of 13.63 passing yards per completion.
So what gives? Well, the full story is perhaps more nuanced than a simple numbers test. In terms of volume, McCarthy certainly doesn’t have much of an argument. Michigan has sat its starters in almost every fourth quarter this season. As obvious as it may seem, McCarthy just isn’t on the field as much as other Heisman contenders.
Even senior running back Blake Corum admitted as much earlier this season. The bell cow back for the Wolverines — who himself has seen limited action due to large leads — emphasized that a lack of volume based statistics is a weak point on every player’s Heisman resume.
“I don’t know the stats,” Corum said Oct. 16. “We haven’t played too many fourth quarters, so obviously he might not be putting up the yards that maybe some other quarterbacks are, but when it comes to (things like) completion rate, I saw it on twitter the other day, but he’s like first, first, second, second, something. He’s on fire.”
To Corum’s point, McCarthy is second nationally in completion percentage at 78.1 percent — just 0.3 percent behind Oregon’s Bo Nix. In fact, it’s in the efficiency game where McCarthy builds his case.
The field general is second overall in passing efficiency, second in yards per pass attempt and — almost paradoxically — 10th in total passing touchdowns. His season average QBR is first in the country. When McCarthy is given the chance, he excels.
He just doesn’t get too many chances.
Michigan ranks 116th in the nation in passing attempts per game, behind the likes of No. 15 LSU, No. 24 USC and No. 5 Washington, all of whom have current Heisman candidates under center.
Thus, when McCarthy considers himself unphased by all the hype that surrounds his junior campaign, it might be for the best. After all, trophy races are fickle games. McCarthy finds himself Vegas’ darling for the week, yet the same couldn’t be said after a disappointing showing against Bowling Green.
If the Wolverines continue their winning ways, it’s unlikely that his name will ever slip out of the conversation, but for now — playing on one of the shortest leashes in football — McCarthy’s efficiency is excellent, yet limiting. He isn’t focused on the award, as much as it may draw eyes. Michigan isn’t focused on manufacturing McCarthy’s presence in New York in December either.
So, when it comes to J.J. McCarthy’s investment in the Heisman race, don’t bet on it.