With the Michigan basketball team’s next loss — which could come as soon as Thursday — its season will come to an end well before anyone expected.
And when the misery is finally over, the discussion of what next season will bring can begin (though on second thought, most people probably moved on to next season midway through that 10-game losing streak).
As those optimists in the Maize Rage will tell you, next season’s roster with will be dramatically better than the roster the Wolverines will end this season with. Lester Abram and Daniel Horton should be back in the mix, while three freshmen should provide coach Tommy Amaker with plenty of depth and should more than make up for the losses of Dani Wohl and J.C. Mathis.
But the lack of depth or talent hardly explains Michigan’s record (4-12 Big Ten, 13-17 overall) this year. Those shortcomings don’t justify a blowout loss to Purdue and heartbreaker after heartbreaker to Indiana.
Then on Saturday, as the Wolverines put together an inspired effort and lost in overtime to Iowa, I realized that watching the team was a lot like my trip to Las Vegas over spring break. Go in expecting to lose, but make sure you learn from it so you’ll be better off the next time.
Before the trip, I knew I was far from an experienced gambler. Sure, I took home the staff picks title during the football season, but that was hardly reason for me to be confident. After all, I beat the celebrities by a single game, and that group included a quarter, a frozen turkey we rolled down the floor and a woman named Rose Bohl who picked games based on where her grandchildren were living.
So going into the weekend, I’d decided that I was willing to lose a certain amount — and even if I lost it all, I wouldn’t let it ruin my weekend.
Easier said than done.
That first night, I got in at around 10 p.m., and, after walking around for a while, I sat down and immediately lost half my money playing blackjack.
But the thing is — at least I’d like to think the thing is — I figured out a thing or two along the way.
I was familiar with the basic strategy that is supposed to minimize the likelihood of losing, but some people told me to increase my bets when I win hands (you’re eventually going to go on a run, and you need to capitalize, I was told), and others told me to increase my bets when I lose hands (if you’re losing hand after hand you’re bound to hit cards soon, the others told me). I tried both strategies, but neither worked.
The next two days I gave other games a shot, but, on the last day, I made my return to the blackjack table determined to reverse my fortunes. Before I knew it, I was down big again. Fortunately, things dramatically turned around, and I made up for my previous losses. But I know I got pretty lucky.
In the end, I learned lessons I already knew: Much of the time, I’ll probably lose more than I win, and I should never, ever bet more than I’m willing to lose. I know, I know, that’s not too exciting. But the reminder didn’t hurt.
So I learned my lesson, but what about the basketball team?
Well, it’ll be interesting to see what happens over the summer, when the players have the opportunity to work on whatever it is they need to work on.
When I think about Michigan’s postseason NIT run last year, I wonder if it gave the players the belief that success would simply come to them this year without having to work hard for it. I’m guessing (or hoping) that their workouts and scrimmages this summer will be a little more intense than last season’s.
If that’s true, and they took a tournament bid this season for granted, they certainly learned that lesson. Hopefully, it’s one of many they’ll take away from this season.
Sharad Mattu can be reached at smattu@umich.edu.