LOS ANGELES — On Monday, the No. 1 Michigan football team will play in its third straight College Football Playoff, but it’s facing a No. 4 Alabama team that is no stranger to the CFP. Since the postseason format’s inception in 2014, the Crimson Tide have only missed it twice while boasting three national championships in that span. The Wolverines, meanwhile, have yet to win a CFP game despite two chances in the last two years.
While the teams’ postseason performances have been one-sided in favor of Alabama over the years, Michigan has been ranked squarely in the top four all season long with the Crimson Tide making a late push to join the playoffs themselves. Each team features quarterbacks who pose a threat on the ground, and each will kick off in Pasadena on New Year’s Day trying to out-scheme the other after a month of preparation.
If the numbers tell us one thing, it’s that both teams make a case for a title berth. Only one can seize it, and even though data can’t predict the outcome, it can paint a clearer picture of where each side stands entering the big-time bout.
Ahead of the Rose Bowl, The Michigan Daily breaks down the numbers behind each team’s journey to the game.
While Michigan expected a “two-headed monster” when senior running back Blake Corum elected to play one more year at Michigan over the offseason, the other head — junior running back Donovan Edwards — struggled to put up big rushing numbers this year. That left Corum dominating the rushing stats, especially endless goal-line touchdowns, with Edwards pitching in the next chunk and Kalel Mullings putting together a couple solid rushing performances as well.
Similar to Michigan, Alabama doesn’t put all of its rushing duties squarely on the legs of one person. While running back Jace Mclellan is clearly the lead back, Roydell Williams also gets plenty of touches out of the backfield, out-gaining the Wolverines’ Edwards as his respective team’s No. 2 back. The biggest difference in The Crimson Tide’s running game is their quarterback Jalen Milroe’s involvement in it, as he’s a staple to their rushing attack.
While not too far ahead from a yardage standpoint, senior receiver Roman Wilson was Michigan’s clear top wideout from a touchdown perspective with 11 on the year, including multiple acrobatic, difficult grabs. The Wolverines spread out their receiving touches to multiple position groups this year, with tight ends Colston Loveland and AJ Barner playing a key role through the air, especially on later downs.
Alabama’s receiving is, well, receiver heavy. Less reliant on tight ends and running backs than Michigan, the Crimson Tide have six receivers totalling more than 100 yards on the year. Jermaine Burton will enter the game as the leading receiver on the field, while Isaiah Bond will also be a receiving X factor.
Jalen Milroe and J.J. McCarthy’s seasons have looked plenty different, and their data looks different too. Milroe was benched after Alabama’s loss to Texas in week two before regaining his starting job in week four and finding his groove as the season progressed. McCarhty has been Michigan’s bonafide starter all year, but has produced slimmer numbers in the latter half of the season. Head to head, McCarthy’s passing numbers beat Milroe’s, while Milroe takes the cake on the ground.
All in all, each offense poses its own challenges for the opposing defensive unit. Alabama has an offensive line bigger than any Michigan has faced all year, blocking for a quarterback as mobile as any the Wolverines have seen thus far. Michigan has dealt with lower rushing numbers but a more balanced offense than its had since becoming a CFP contender over the past three seasons.
“(Milroe’s) a great player. Great runner. Did 500 some yards of scramble yards, another 250 or so in quarterback-driven runs, outstanding thrower, big offensive line,” Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh said Sunday. “Outstanding running backs, tight ends, receivers. Yeah, all 11 for us really on defense. We’ve got a game plan, and getting things cleaned up. On our toes at all times. It’s a big challenge.”
While Harbaugh and Michigan will have their hands full with Alabama’s offensive weapons across the field, the Wolverines hope to hit Alabama with the same. With McCarthy healthier after the break, he hopes to extend plays with his legs and give even more time for players like Loveland to get free from the tight end spot and further beef up Michigan’s tight end advantage.
Defense is perhaps Michigan’s greatest strength. The Wolverines lead the nation in total defense while also giving up the fewest points per game in the country at 9.46 — the only team giving up single-digit points on average this season. Alabama, meanwhile, gave up 18.38 points per game this season, good for 15th overall, but also faced more prolific offenses overall this season than Michigan did.
I think they’re a very talented defensive team,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said Sunday. “They’ve got really good guys up front. Their linebackers are very athletic. The secondary is very disciplined in terms of how they play and how they execute and what they do. They’ve got some pretty interesting ways that they pressure the quarterback, whether it’s single back or plugs, kind of the way they present trying to pressure the quarterback, which I think can be challenging to the offensive line.”
Defense wins championships, and with a National Championship appearance on the line, it may very well come down to the defensive side of the ball. Whether it’s fourth down stops or forcing turnovers, players like Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry and Michigan’s Mike Sainrisitl will look to disrupt the ball and put their offenses in position to succeed.
There’s a reason Michigan defensive coordinator Jesse Minter jokingly referred to the CFP as the “Alabama Invitational.” Since the four team playoff was introduced in 2014, replacing the BCS national championship game by giving four teams the opportunity to compete for a national championship during bowl season, the Crimson Tide have been invited on the regular.
They appeared in the first five iterations of the playoff, and have found plenty of success this time of year. After losing its first playoff game to Ohio State in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, Alabama has won each of its last six CFP semifinal matchups, going on to win it all in half of those seasons. Michigan, on the other hand, is not only on a well-documented slump in bowl games, but has also lost in the semifinal in each of its two appearances thus far. When it comes to CFP success between the two programs, the data is easy to decipher.
Championship weekend brought chaos for the CFP Selection Committee this year, with Alabama’s upset over undefeated Georgia, Texas’ expected triumph in the Big 12 Championship and Florida State’s ACC title victory making the list of seemingly qualified teams as big as ever. One-loss Alabama’s inclusion over undefeated ACC champion FSU drew nationwide criticism, and it represents the first time an undefeated Power Five team missed the playoffs.
Of course, one component of the CFP ranking is the quality of a team’s wins, and the importance of those wins. Texas’ week two win over Alabama is still very relevant in the ranking of the two teams, directly impacting Michigan’s semifinal matchup.
Here, the CFP committee’s analysis is extended to the extreme. The above network diagram shows all FBS teams and the matchups between them (dots and lines, respectively). Each team’s dominance is computed solely on one self-referential metric: how dominant the teams it’s beaten are. Details aside, this dominance metric ranks Michigan No. 4, Washington No. 1, Texas No. 2 and Alabama No. 10.
When it comes to the two programs’ recruiting classes, Alabama reels in the star power. The Crimson Tide regularly place ahead of the Wolverines in recruiting rankings, with far more five-star recruits year after year.
Comparing the two rosters from where they were recruited from, Michigan unsurprisingly holds serve in the midwest, while Alabama dominates the south. The Wolverines also have a stronger presence out west than the Crimson Tide, while Alabama’s recruits are regularly rated higher overall.
But no matter where they were recruited from or how many stars they were rated, each player has had their journeys this season wind toward the same spot: an impasse between Michigan and Alabama in a bowl game known as the “granddaddy of them all.” They were recruited to win championships, and now they each have a chance to.