OMAHA, Neb. — Just four teams remain in the 2024 Big Ten Tournament: Indiana, Nebraska, Michigan and Penn State. These final four teams are set to enter semifinal competition Saturday. Three of the four units were projected to be in this position from tournament seeding entering in spots two, three and four. The outlier? The No. 8 seed Nittany Lions.
The Wolverines and Penn State will face off for the second time this tournament in an elimination epic. If their previous matchup is any indication, Saturday will likely be a back-and-forth affair as each team vies for the coveted spot in the championship game.
“The beauty of the game is that as long as you have 27 outs to go, you have a chance,” Michigan coach Tracy Smith said. “ … So as long as we have another 27 outs to play with, I’ll bet on this group to my left any day of the week.”
The Nittany Lions currently hold the highest batting average in the Big Ten at .309 and are just five points behind first-place Iowa in on-base percentage in the conference as well at .405. The offense certainly knows how to get on base, and while they might not be known for bombs that leave the ballpark, a base hit has proved to be just as effective.
On Wednesday, Penn State batter’s doubled four times and took advantage of the vast outfield at Charles Schwab Field and its speedy base runners to put players in scoring positions as often as possible. And while it was a grand slam that ultimately gave the Nittany Lions the edge in the bottom of the eighth inning, the three runners that set up the stunning moment got on base from a walk and back-to-back singles. If it weren’t for these simple, tactical plays, the smashed ball from third baseman Bryce Molinaro would have resulted in only a single run, and the Wolverines would have had much less to respond to.
The team that currently leads the nation in double plays should have no issue shutting down a small-ball opponent. But as Smith preaches, a ballgame is won and lost on the mound. And in order for Michigan to shut down the Penn State bats, it’s going to need a dominant presence on the bump.
The Wolverines’ pitching staff has experimented with a variation of strategies this season, but the one that has often been most successful is the pitch-to-contact tactic. By trusting in the defense behind them, the Michigan mound often pitches the ball with the hope to get a quick fly out or groundout in order to keep their pitch count low. But versus the Nittany Lions, this likely won’t be enough. Against a unit that thrives by putting the ball in play, pitching to contact may be simply too risky for the Wolverines. Instead, Michigan should look to employ someone who can get consistent outs by throwing strikes in order to keep Penn State’s offense at bay.
On the defensive front, the Nittany Lions boast one of the most exciting outfield units in the conference. The group controls the outfield grass expertly, and any ball that is put within their reach is likely an out.
In order for the Wolverines to get the necessary runs on the board, they should look to utilize the small-ball play that awarded them success in their round one victory over Iowa. Through taking advantage of Hawkeye missteps and practicing clean base running, Michigan was able to consistently score without needing overt offensive production. Against Penn State, the Wolverines should look to mimic this offensive style and keep the ball squarely in the diamond.
“I think that we just go into every game with the same idea,” graduate right fielder Stephen Hrustich said. “We’re going to give our best effort, it doesn’t matter who’s on the other side of the field. Playing (Penn State) and losing to them yesterday obviously makes it a bit tougher. But we’re still going to give our best effort and play winning baseball.”
All in all, the matchup will likely be incredibly even and either team’s game to take. When stats are flattened and strategy is removed from the equation, it all comes down to which group wants the win more. Currently, the Nittany Lions are experiencing a cinderella-story-esque run and have proved that they believe in themselves more than anyone else.
Michigan proclaims that they echo these sentiments, but Saturday, this will truly be put to the test. Against a group that exemplifies the underdog mentality it is up to the Wolverines to prove to themselves and their opponents that they trust in themselves as much as they declare.