The Michigan football team hasn’t won in Iowa City since 2005, but that’s exactly what it’ll need to do in order to keep its revised goal of a 10-win season in play.
While the defense impressed last weekend against Northwestern, allowing just 19 points in regulation and three overtimes, the offense didn’t come to life until fifth-year senior kicker Brendan Gibbons knocked a last-second field goal through the uprights to force overtime.
The Hawkeyes and Wolverines are jockeying for bowl position after Iowa became bowl-eligible, steamrolling Purdue two weeks ago.
Michigan pass offense vs. Iowa pass defense
Had Northwestern capitalized on even one of Michigan redshirt junior quarterback Devin Gardner’s four near-interceptions last weekend, Gibbons probably wouldn’t have even gotten the chance to send the game into overtime. Chances are, the Hawkeyes won’t be so forgiving of any Gardner miscues.
Iowa’s defensive line has begun to look more like the strong units of years past, and it just might dominate that young, struggling Michigan interior line. The Wolverines have allowed 19 sacks in the past three games, and it seems likely that the Hawkeyes will be able to pressure Gardner into at least one mistake.
Edge: Iowa
Michigan rush offense vs. Iowa rush defense
Overall, Iowa has the country’s ninth-best defense. But last weekend marked the return of the Michigan ground game, though fifth-year senior running back Fitzgerald Toussaint sat with a concussion.
Freshmen Derrick Green and De’Veon Smith turned on the jets against the Wildcats, and though Hoke has insisted Toussaint is still his go-to out of the backfield, he also said there is a role in the offense for all three running backs. This week in practice, the carries were divided in thirds, according to Hoke.
It’s crucial that the Wolverines set the tone early for a big day running the ball. If not, the Wolverines could well be stuck with yet another stagnant offensive outing.
Edge: Iowa
Iowa pass offense vs. Michigan pass defense
The Hawkeyes’ aerial attack is not going to turn many heads. Jake Rudock starts at quarterback, leading a pro-style offense. He has thrown nine interceptions this season.
Meanwhile, Michigan continues to rotate its safeties, giving time to redshirt junior Josh Furman and senior Courtney Avery. Those two have been more of a liability than an asset.
Expect senior safety Thomas Gordon to play most of the snaps after looking very strong last weekend, securing the game-winning interception.
Edge: Michigan
Iowa rush offense vs. Michigan rush defense
This is where the Hawkeyes have the potential to do some damage. Iowa won’t hurt you through the air, but junior running back Mark Weisman has shown he is capable of carrying the offense. Damon Bullock is the other running back the Hawkeyes use, though he gets fewer carries.
Michigan is 12th in the country against the run this season, giving up 111 yards per game. The linebackers were key in last weekend’s win and will need to be again in Iowa City on Saturday.
Edge: Michigan
Special teams
It’s safe to say Gibbons is back on track, recovering nicely at Northwestern after some unsteadiness in recent weeks. Iowa kicker Mike Meyer hasn’t missed in the month of November.
The Hawkeyes are not a good return team, especially on kickoffs where they average just 18 yards per attempt.
In a game that could easily come down to special teams, Michigan should have a slight edge.
Edge: Michigan
Intangibles
Michigan seems to be at least a little rejuvenated after snapping its mini-slump, but playing on the road is always an adventure for Hoke’s teams.
It’s senior day for Iowa, and the Hawkeyes will want to finish on a high note at home. Their four losses have all come against competition that is, at least, decent.
Edge: Iowa
Prediction: Michigan 17, Iowa 14