Back in November after a game against the Michigan hockey team, Penn State forward Ashton Calder was asked to compare the Big Ten to his past experiences in the NCHC and CCHA. Three drastically different conferences, Calder noted the parity between the leagues after his first Big Ten action.
“There’s not really too big of a difference,” Calder said. “I mean, every night you’re getting a gauntlet in either conference — I’ve told everybody that. Like top to bottom in this conference, there’s no weak teams really. So I just kind of noticed really there’s not much difference no matter who you play.”
Fast forward 13 weeks, after the Wolverines swept their rematch with Calder’s Nittany Lions. Four teams — No. 1 Minnesota, No. 4 Michigan, No. 6 Penn State and No. 8 Ohio State — sit near the top of the Pairwise comparison. The algorithm that calculates who makes the NCAA Tournament come March, Pairwise puts that Big Ten quartet on an inside track to qualify for college hockey’s biggest stage.
While the Big Ten as a conference might be enjoying its lofty position as February begins, the results have a lot more to do with what its teams did months ago than recent conference results.
Namely, the conference’s combined 49-18-3 record against non-conference opponents drives that high rating. Michigan itself went 8-1-1 with wins over No. 3 Boston University, No. 9 Harvard and No. 10 Western Michigan.
Governed by an NCAA system prioritizing metrics like head-to-head and common opponent records, the Big Ten’s .721 win percentage against the rest of the country put the conference in this position as early as November.
Since then, the Big Ten has cannibalized itself in conference play, with five teams separated by just three points. Two of those teams — No. 14 Notre Dame and No. 18 Michigan State — are also within striking distance to make the postseason.
Evident of the conference’s strength, the non-factor USCHO polls have accordingly ranked six Big Ten teams in various polls since November. While those polls have no bearing on postseason play, they give a good barometer for college hockey’s top teams. No other conference has maintained such poll dominance this late into the year. Hockey East and the NCHC tie for second with four teams in the polls.
“It’s great to see our conference is so highly ranked,” freshman forward T.J. Hughes said Nov. 14, days after the Big Ten saw six teams ranked in the USCHO poll. “So you know, you’re playing the best of the best every night. So it’s kind of hard not to get up for the game. It’s super exciting.”
Of course, the Big Ten hasn’t always enjoyed that position this late in the season. In two of its first four seasons (2015 and 2016), it only sent its conference champion to the NCAA Tournament. In large part, that was due to its .466 and .500 non-conference win percentage those two seasons. Those marks ranked just fourth and fifth out of the six NCAA conferences, respectively.
But recent trends in non-conference play have changed that. In the next five seasons that included inter-conference play (basically excluding the 2020-21 COVID season), the Big Ten has boasted the best non-conference record three times. In the other two seasons, it held the second-best margin. Accordingly, the Big Ten has claimed 11 at-large bids over those five seasons, averaging at least three participants. That’s a drastic improvement that demonstrates how non-conference wins have put the conference in increasingly favorable positions for the Tournament.
As a result, more bids means more chances to make the Frozen Four — like Michigan and Minnesota did last season.
“It makes a statement,” Minnesota coach Bob Motzko said before the 2022 Frozen Four. “I was in a league (the NCHC with St. Cloud State) going against the Big Ten for many years and now I’ve been over here for four. You know, the Big Ten takes some criticism. And I believe that our programs are very strong. We beat the snot out of each other a lot like the NCHC and all the leagues, but this is another step forward for us.”
And the Big Ten has seemingly taken a leap with its even more dominant non-conference win percentage. Even lowly Wisconsin — just 3-13 in Big Ten play — boasts a 7-3 record against outside opponents.
While Michigan and its peers have taken the next step forward, there are plenty more to take before the Big Ten can claim the ultimate prize. Ten years into the conference’s history, none of its six Frozen Four teams have won a National Championship. Accordingly, only two have even played in the title match.
Still, consistently sending multiple teams to the Tournament puts it in prime position to hang a banner. The remainder of the regular season and Big Ten Tournament could shake up the standings. But the Gophers, Wolverines, Nittany Lions and Buckeyes are in prime positions to make postseason waves.
Because 13 weeks later, Calder’s assessment of the Big Ten stands true, It’s just like other conferences. The only caveat is that under a system that all but decides postseason representation in early non-conference play, the Big Ten knows how to win in October.
And that makes all the difference in March.