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Breakdown: Michigan has slight edge over surging Boilermakers

By Kevin Raftery, Daily Sports Editor
Published October 27, 2011

After Michigan lost to Michigan State, Michigan football fans have been left wondering if this is just another team prone to another second-half collapse.

Michigan coach Brady Hoke and his players have insisted all week that this team is different. Beating Purdue (2-1 Big Ten, 4-3 overall) is the first step in the process of proving it. Here’s what to expect on Saturday against the surging Boilermakers.

Michigan pass offense vs. Purdue pass defense

While there’s no questioning that junior quarterback Denard Robinson played poorly against Michigan State (9-for-24 passing for 123 yards), Michigan fans seem to forget that he has shown promise in the air at times this season. Even with Robinson’s struggles, the 22nd-ranked Wolverines (2-1, 6-1) are still ranked third in the Big Ten in passing yards with 249 yards per game.

Much of that has to do with Robinson, although credit must be given to the receiver corps as well. Fifth-year senior Junior Hemingway and redshirt junior Roy Roundtree have perfected the jump-ball and have both made some huge catches this season.

Purdue ranks sixth in the Big Ten in pass defense, allowing an average of 181 yards per game, but the Boilermakers are first in pass-defense efficiency. Cornerbacks Ricardo Allen and Josh Johnson have proven to be one of the better starting duos in the league. In just 17 career games, Allen has three interception returns for touchdowns, the most recent coming on Oct. 8 against Minnesota. As a sophomore, he’s already tied for first on the all-time Purdue list for most interceptions for touchdowns.

If the Boilermakers’ defensive line can get some pressure on Robinson like the Spartans did, the Wolverines may once again have trouble through the air. Hoke said sophomore Devin Gardner will get some snaps as well, but chances are he won’t be in long enough to make a real impact on the passing game. With an onrushing defensive line and two solid cornerbacks in the secondary for Purdue, that could spell trouble for Michigan.

Edge: Purdue

Michigan rush offense vs. Purdue rush defense

Eight weeks into the season, Michigan is still searching for a lead back. Junior running back Vincent Smith and sophomore Fitzgerald Toussaint have shown promise, but neither has been consistent enough to grasp the starting role. Still, even without a dominant running back, Michigan is third in the conference in rushing offense, averaging 280 yards per game. Robinson is the main reason for that, as he is averaging 70 yards per game.

Purdue is led by senior linebacker Joe Holland, who averages 7.7 tackles per game and has proven to be one of the better linebackers in the conference. The Boilermakers are fourth in the Big Ten in rush defense, giving up an average up 134 yards. Against the Wolverines last year, Purdue gave up 202 yards on the ground — 100 came from Smith, 92 from Robinson.

If Smith emerges like he did last season, the edge goes to Michigan. But even if he doesn’t, Robinson has the ability to singlehandedly take over a game with his legs. That tips the scale in the Wolverines’ favor.

Edge: Michigan

Purdue pass offense vs. Michigan pass defense

In the past couple years, the Purdue quarterback situation has been about as stable as the American economy. Finally, it appears they have found their man in junior Caleb TerBush, although Purdue coach Danny Hope said senior backup Robert Marve will get some snaps on Saturday as well. Through seven games, TerBush has already surpassed the former starter Marve’s total passing yardage from last year. Still, the Boilermakers have struggled in the air for most of this season, averaging just 171 yards per game.

The Michigan secondary, led by junior cornerback Jordan Kovacs, has made big strides this season under defensive coordinator Greg Mattison but is still giving up a very average 185 yards in Big Ten matchups. However, the Wolverines are eighth in the nation in turnover margin — something that has saved Michigan in several key moments this season.

With a relatively unproven quarterback in TerBush and a shaky backup in Marve, the secondary should be able to keep the Boilermakers in check through the air. And if it can force a turnover or two as it has in the past, that could turn a close game into a comfortable win.

Edge: Michigan

Purdue rush offense vs.


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