Despite finishing with a disappointing regular-season record and failing to win a division championship for the first time in 12 years, just three wins separate the Michigan water polo team from a berth in the NCAA Tournament.

The Wolverines (3-1 CWPA Western Division, 18-13 overall) find themselves in need of a tournament win, and the automatic NCAA Tournament bid that goes along with it, at the CWPA Eastern Championship this weekend in Ann Arbor. Coming up short would keep them at home, as Michigan’s .581 winning percentage essentially eliminates it from contention for an at-large bid.

The 12-team, double-elimination event determines the conference’s representative in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines enter the conference tournament as the No. 4 seed and could likely to find themselves in a second-round rematch with their biggest rival, No. 1 seed Indiana. Michigan’s No. 4 seed marks the first time in history that the Wolverines have entered the tournament above a No. 2 seed.

The Hoosiers defeated Michigan, 10-7, on April 13 at the CWPA Western Division Tournament, dashing the Wolverines’ hopes of a 12th consecutive division championship and the top seed in the tournament.

But it seems that the loss won’t matter. In all likelihood, the Hoosiers will advance to the second round, as an Indiana loss to either Bucknell or Mercyhurst, its prospective opponents, is improbable. Similarly, Michigan has to beat the winner of Friday afternoon’s tilt between Brown and Connecticut College in order to set up a rivalry clash Saturday. The Wolverines can also expect to be a heavy favorite in the first round, regardless of their opponent.

Michigan defeated Brown, 11-7, in Providence, R.I. on April 7. Though the Wolverines didn’t face Connecticut College in the regular season, the Camels consistently struggled with opponents that Michigan blew out, including Grove City, La Verne and Washington & Jefferson.

The Wolverines might be more concerned about their looming second-round matchup, though. In the season’s first matchup against Indiana, junior attacker Kelsey Nolan led Michigan to a 10-9 overtime victory, posting a hat trick and coming up with a game-tying goal with less than two minutes remaining in regulation.

The second meeting between the only Big Ten schools to compete in women’s water polo wasn’t nearly as competitive. The Hoosiers jumped out to a three-goal lead in the third quarter, and Michigan never recovered.

Also looming in the shadows, should the Wolverines advance, are Hartwick and Princeton. Michigan fell to the Hawks on April 6, 10-6, while the Tigers have posted upsets over No. 16 UC Davis and No. 13 Cal State Northridge.

The Wolverines carry some valuable postseason experience to help them make the critical run. Senior attacker Kiki Golden has 17 goals in nine career Eastern Championship tournament games, while senior two-meter Lauren Colton and junior attacker Kelsey Nolan, along with Golden, are former All-Tournament selections. Golden and Colton were named to the first and second teams, respectively, in 2011 and 2012, and Nolan joined Colton on the second team in 2012.

Win or lose, this weekend is the final homestand for Michigan’s five senior. The Class of 2013 is 31-9 all-time at Canham Natatorium.

It’s a sure bet that Golden, Colton, drivers Natalie Naruns and Sophie Hazelrigg and goalkeeper Alex Adamson have the Wolverines fired up to try to improve that mark to 34-9 and earn a trip to the NCAA Tournament in Cambridge, Mass.