University Health Service has only received 500 of the 25,000 swine flu vaccine doses it ordered this summer for University students and faculty, according to UHS Medical Director Robert Ernst.

That shortage mirrors similar situations facing municipality officials and college administrators across the country, frustrated with a nationwide lag in the production and distribution of the H1N1 vaccine.

And officials here say that that shortfall could strain medical resources on campus as they expect a “second wave” of swine flu cases to hit Ann Arbor in the coming weeks.

Despite the fact that the White House declared the swine flu outbreak a national emergency on Saturday and that health officials had previously promised that large vaccine quantities would be available as early as the first week of October, they are now saying the vaccine may not be accessible on a large scale until as late as December.

“The entire country is seeing a significantly lower availability of vaccine than we had anticipated, and it’s a nationwide problem — not a local problem,” Ernst said.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of Oct. 21, more than 11 million doses of the vaccine have been shipped — with 308,300 doses sent to clinics, hospitals and health departments in Michigan.

In total, the federal government has purchased 250 million doses for distribution, but only 16 million doses have been made available.

The CDC said quantities of the vaccine are being shipped as soon as they are available. UHS receives all vaccines from the Washtenaw County Health Department. Ernst said the health department has only received 30 percent of its expected supply, which is why the University has so few available vaccines.

Cindra James, emergency preparedness coordinator for the Washtenaw County Health Department, said the county has received about 1,000 doses of the nasal spray and 1,000 doses of the injection shot.

While the department has vaccinated about 500 people so far, James said it is frustrated that it doesn't have the resources to vaccinate more county residents.

“We can’t (vaccinate) enough of the population like we want to,” James said.

On campus, the number of swine flu cases has ebbed and flowed as the semester has progressed.

According to Ernst, UHS saw the greatest amount of H1N1 cases during the second week of classes — with as many as 50 cases a day.

UHS has seen fewer H1N1 cases in the last two to three weeks — with an estimated five to 10 cases showing up each day.

However, Ernst said he expects the number of cases to increase in the coming weeks, citing 16 cases at UHS last Thursday.

He added that H1N1 has exhibited a predictable pattern of high and low infection periods and said other schools and universities have reported high volumes of cases at the beginning of classes and then a “cooling off period” before a second wave hits.

“We’re concerned that we may be at the beginning of a second wave right now,” he said. “That’s also consistent with what the (Washtenaw County) Health Department is reporting at elementary and secondary schools in the community.”

Ernst said it’s important for people to not become complacent with flu prevention strategies like washing hands, covering coughs and keeping hands away from your mouth, nose and eyes.

“The most important thing is that if you are sick please limit your contact with other people,” Ernst said, adding that people with the H1N1 virus should isolate themselves for at least 24 hours after their fevers break.

For those seeking the vaccine, the health department and the University, facing the current vaccine shortage, have redefined their priority groups to determine which individuals get first access to the vaccine.