BY LINDY STEVENS
Daily News Editor
Published June 8, 2008
Politicians gunning for a presidential nod with political experience as their biggest selling point might want to start looking for
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a new campaign platform, according to one University professor's findings. In a study released last week, Business Prof. D. Scott DeRue, found that years of political experience don't make a difference when it comes to securing a party nomination for the next commander in chief.
DeRue found that time-tested politicians don't have an upper hand when it comes to getting a bid from the Republican or Democratic Party.
"It's not simply the number of years of experience one has," DeRue said. "But it's what they do with those years that matters."
DeRue said a debate among political pundits on CNN sparked his project, which began in January and wrapped up just over a week
ago. Questions of experience that were raised during the race between Sen. Hillary Clinton and presumptive presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama are what DeRue said intrigued him initially.
To begin his research, though, DeRue went back much further than start of this year's race for the White House. He and his colleagues compiled extensive résumés of the top four nominees from both major parties for every presidential election since 1948.
Although the study found that some experiences, like military service and a previous run for the nomination improved a candidate's chances for success, DeRue said that a true advantage isn't something that can be quantified in years alone.
"It's simply not a differentiating factor," DeRue said. "Lots of people are senators or congressmen for many years, but not all of them have the things that really matter."
Based on his findings, DeRue said that presumptive presidential nominee John McCain was an obvious frontrunner among the field of Republicans vying for this year's nomination. Though the renowned war hero and seasoned campaign veteran does have the makings of a qualified nominee, DeRue said there are other factors, most of which weren't at work this year, that are better predictors of success.
Serving as a former vice president, DeRue said, is probably the strongest forecaster of who will make the most viable candidate. DeRue pointed to former vice president Al Gore as the most recent example.
Alternatively, DeRue said that connections to a political family, affiliations with an Ivy League university and work experience in the public sector as a lawyer or doctor have no impact on the likelihood of nomination.
Leadership in a public sector social organization, like former Republican presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee's post as a pastor in the Baptist church, can actually work to a candidate's disadvantage, according to DeRue's findings.
With so many of these tell-tale signs absent among this year's pack of Democrats, Jennifer Nahrgang, a graduate student at Michigan State University who worked with DeRue on the project, said that made potential standouts on the left side of the aisle harder to spot.
"What this study does show, is that everybody focused on the number of years of experience that Hillary Clinton had and that doesn't seem to predict those who are nominated," Nahrgang said. "So there's something else at work on the Democratic side."
Nahrgang said she suspected it was Obama's "charisma" that helped differentiate him from Clinton, though she said that was not a factor the researchers considered in the study.
Based on past profiles of other promising nominees, Nahrgang said former presidential hopeful John Edwards would have been the most likely choice among Democrats.
Nahrgang reiterated, however, that this study was only designed to profile potentially successful nominees within a single party. She said the qualities that make an individual promising for the party aren't enough to guarantee that that person will also win the White House.
For Brady Smith, chair of the College Republicans, the results of DeRue's study weren't a surprise. Smith said he thought that McCain's military experience gave him an obvious advantage over his competitors.
"John McCain's understanding of world affairs and his understanding of the practical way that America applies itself in foreign affairs is absolutely key to the American voter," Smith said.
Smith also agreed that McCain's presidential run in 2000 gave him a leg up over his opponents. As a household name in American politics, Smith said the presumptive nominee's familiarity could "be very comfortable and reassuring to the American voter."
For Nathaniel Eli Coats Styer, chair of the College Democrats, the results of DeRue's study weren't quite as convincing.
"I believe that the experience issue plays differently depending on the person and on the candidate," Styer said.























