In a speech before Congress Wednesday, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan warned of continued weakness in the economy, noting in particular that unemployment is expected to continue its climb in the coming year. As the autumn campus recruiting season draws near, the prognosis is sure to cast a heavy shadow over students" job prospects.

Following years of record campus recruitment, the hiring momentum slowed considerably last winter when tumbling stock prices led the economy into an abrupt slow-down. As companies scaled back profit estimates and reassessed employment needs, a number of students who had secured employment in the fall recruiting season were suddenly confronted with an uncertain future.

"We"ve heard of delays in hiring, and in winter we had some rescinded offers," said Cynthia Redwine, director of the College of Engineering"s Career Resource Center. "Companies are having to slow down in terms of the number of hires."

In the technology, automotive and consulting industries, where the economic downturn was particularly acute, many firms made the decision to delay recruits" start dates in order to keep pace with slowing business. With a number of last year"s recruits still delayed some for as long as a year last fall"s recruitment overestimates are expected to compound job scarcity in the coming year.

"Most companies over-recruit in good times and under-recruit in bad times," explained Business Prof. Richard Price, a senior research scientist at the Institute for Social Research. "One of the first things (companies) will do is slow down recruiting they already have a workforce that they"ve invested in."

While many companies have dealt with the downturn by delaying recruits" start dates, including consulting giants Accenture and Arthur Andersen, a number of firms have sought alternative methods. The Boston Consulting Group introduced a "Language Immersion Program" nationwide this year, offering recruited consultants the option of intensive study in foreign language before joining the firm full-time.

"It"s a long-term investment in human capital to increase the language skills of our consultants," explained Robert Pipkin, BCG"s director of media relations. "It has worked well (in past years) on the West Coast we"re excited about it."

In addition to students seeking full-time employment, internship-seekers are likely to see an impact on campus recruiting. As full-time employment interview schedules shrink, internships are likely to become an increasingly important method of hiring for recruiters. Many firms, also aware of the public relations value of internships, have been reluctant to cancel the programs.

"Some companies have shortened the term of the internship so that they provide the experiential opportunity for the students but stay within their budget constraints," said Lynne Sebille-White, assistant director of recruitment services at the University"s Career Planning and Placement office. "They"re trying to come up with alternatives."

Despite anticipated cutbacks in hiring volume, core recruiters are expected to return as usual this year to maintain their campus presence.

"We might not have companies coming in and asking for as many (interview) schedules, but the volume is quite brisk as far as companies coming to campus," Redwine said. "We"ve seen some companies who have decided that they"re not going to make a recruiting visit, but it hasn"t been overwhelming."

Offering encouragement to job-seekers, many firms have coupled recruit delays with employee layoffs, a factor which may allow companies to proceed with regular recruiting hiring cycles this year. Nevertheless, recruiting will be closely tied to the economic forecast, and job-seekers will keep their eyes on Greenspan"s forecast: The "return to solid growth" anticipated in the Federal Reserve"s Monetary Policy Report may allow for the recovery in 2002 that will get recruiting back on track.