Low sales, layoffs indicate recession

WASHINGTON

Home sales and orders to factories for big-ticket items plunged in September, and the number of Americans drawing unemployment benefits now stands at an 18-year-high the strongest evidence to date that the country has entered a recession.

"The bad news just keeps on coming," said Melani Jani, an economist at Salomon Smith Barney in New York. "The economy was already weak before Sept. 11, and these figures show the deterioration has become much more intense."

The Commerce Department reported yesterday that orders to factories for big-ticket durable goods fell for a fourth consecutive month in September, a decline of 8.5 percent that was six times larger than economists expected. It pushed orders for durable goods down to $165.4 billion, the lowest level since August 1996.

Sales of existing homes, one of the economy"s few bright spots, fell by 11.7 percent, the biggest one-month drop in six years, the National Association of Realtors reported. The association said the shock of the terrorist attacks caused housing sales, along with a lot of other economic activity, to come to a standstill.

The Labor Department said the number of newly laid-off workers filing for unemployment benefits rose to 504,000 last week, a level usually associated with recessions, while the total number of unemployed collecting benefits rose to an 18-year-high of 3.65 million people, 66 percent above the level of a year ago.

"These numbers leave no doubt that we are in a recession," said Michael Evans, chief economist at American Economics Group, a Washington-based consulting firm.

A final report showed that Americans" wages and benefits rose by 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in September, compared to a 4.3 percent increase for the previous 12 months. Analysts said that figure will decline even more sharply in coming months as rising layoffs further depress employees" bargaining power.

Wall Street posted sharp declines for most of the day on the bad economic data, but then staged a late session rebound as investors swooped in to grab bargains. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 117.28 points at 9,462.90.

A recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of declining economic output. The gross domestic product grew at a barely discernible annual rate of 0.3 percent in the April-June quarter.

Many analysts believe when the GDP figure for July-September quarter is released Wednesday, it will show GDP falling at a rate of around 1 percent with the decline expected to accelerate to a 2 percent drop in the current quarter.

While economists had been expecting a rebound early next year, many said they are revising those forecasts down, in part because of the new uncertainties raised by threats of anthrax and other bioterror attacks.

"Clearly, anything that hits consumer confidence is bad for the economy. The real question is how bad will it be," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor"s Co. in New York. "With all of the developments on the terrorist front, our crystal balls have gotten cracked."

Wyss said he still believes economic activity will begin to rebound in the first quarter, helped by an aggressive credit easing on the part of the Federal Reserve and sizable tax cuts and government spending increases. The Fed is expected to cut rates for a 10th time this year at its next meeting, Nov. 6.

Nigerian soldiers wipe out rural villages

ZAKI-BIAM, Nigeria

The smell of death lingered yesterday over the deserted streets of this burned out village one of seven where state officials say soldiers bent on revenge destroyed homes and killed at least 130 people in eastern Nigeria.

State officials say the raids were in reprisal for the abduction and killing of 19 soldiers by Tiv tribal fighters earlier this month in Benue state, where villagers have been waging a decade-long ethnic feud.

Uniformed soldiers traveling in armored personnel carriers destroyed seven settlements, killing 130 people in just one village, state Gov. George Akume said yesterday. The figures could not be independently verified. Defense officials deny they ordered any revenge attacks.

The soldiers who arrived in Zaki-Biam on Tuesday told residents they were peacekeepers and instructed people to stay in their homes, according to the few residents who started straggling back yesterday.

"We thought they were coming here to protect us, but suddenly they took up positions and started firing at us," said Titus Madugu, a nurse, hovering nervously in the garden next to his burned house.

Madugu"s uncle was killed his five children and one of his two wives disappeared in the mayhem, as villagers fled into the forest.