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Breakdown: Michigan will do just enough to top Illinois

BY RUTH LINCOLN AND COURTNEY RATKOWIAK
Daily Sports Edtiors
Published October 29, 2009

Michigan passing offense vs. Illinois passing defense

Tate Forcier has struggled mightily since the Indiana game, and that was no different last week. And with two more turnovers against Penn State, Denard Robinson has shown he's liable to lose the ball every time he takes the field.

Michigan's passing game appears to be regressing, but the Illinois defense is giving up 230.6 passing yards per game, most in the Big Ten. Saturday is Michigan's chance to complete some long passes — if Forcier can lead a drive for more than just the first possession.

Edge: Michigan

Michigan rushing offense vs. Illinois rushing defense

As long as Michigan doesn't fall behind early, it should be able to use its run game much more than it could against Penn State. The Wolverine running back corps racked up more rushing yards in last Saturday's first half than Penn State's Big Ten-leading defense had, on average, given up in per game.

This week, Michigan is facing the conference's worst rush defense. Last week, Purdue racked up 220 yards on the ground against the Illini — and the Boilermakers are still only averaging 146.4 rushing yards per game. Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez said on last night's radio show that Brandon Minor won't be 100 percent, but expect Carlos Brown, Michael Shaw and possibly even Vincent Smith to still make a mark in this game.

Edge: Michigan

Michigan passing defense vs. Illinois passing offense

What happened to Arrelious Benn?

The Illinois junior wideout was pegged in the preseason to be the Big Ten’s top offensive threat. But with just 287 yards and 25 catches, the physical 220-pound, wide-receiver has yet to score a touchdown this season. Illinois is dead-last in the Big Ten in pass offense, so Benn hasn’t gotten much help from his teammates.

Injury has played a role in Benn’s collapse, but he nearly had a breakout game two weeks ago against Indiana, when he hauled in nine catches. On Saturday, senior quarterback Juice Williams will likely split time with redshirt freshman quarterback Jacob Charest, raising bigger questions in the Illini aerial attack.

Against a Michigan secondary that became even thinner after Boubacar Cissoko's dismissal, Saturday might be Benn’s best chance for a breakout. The Wolverines are 10th in the Big Ten is passing defense (232.5 yards per game), and it doesn’t look like things will get much brighter this season.

Junior Donovan Warren might be the Big Ten’s best corner, but he needs some help. With Cissoko gone, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to know who will step in.

Edge: Push

Michigan rushing defense vs. Illinois rushing offense

If there’s one thing Michigan fans can remember from last year’s matchup between the two schools, it’s Williams lighting up the ground at Michigan Stadium. The quarterback put on a show, rushing for 121 yards and leading the Illini to a Big House record 431 all-purpose yards.

But like Benn, Williams hasn’t been as much of a threat this season. His passing has been a disappointment, and even though he leads the Illini in rushing, it’s with just 390 yards. Like the Wolverines, the Illini have split carries all season without establishing much consistency, but have managed a respectable 171.9 yards per game.

Michigan has done a decent job shutting down the run, ranking seventh in rushing defense in the Big Ten, and with Williams and Charest splitting time and a tailback corps in flux, it shouldn’t be much of an issue for the Wolverines.

Edge: Michigan

Special Teams

Zoltan Mesko always gives Michigan's defense a chance. Saturday should be no different. His leg alone gives Michigan at least a push, regardless of the opponent. Illinois is dead last in the Big Ten in punt returns, averaging just 3.6 yards per return. Even if Mesko doesn't have his best game, the Illini will likely still be stuck starting most drives from deep in their own territory.

But Michigan's punt and kick returners have struggled as well. Rodriguez is again shuffling who handles returns, and the results haven't been pretty so far. Benn has been solid on kick returns for Illinois, but not enough to give his team an edge.

Edge: Michigan

Intangibles

There’s absolutely no reason to fear a winless Big Ten team, right?


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