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Breakdown: Michigan vs. Michigan State

BY IAN ROBINSON AND NATE SANDALS
Daily Sports Editors
Published October 22, 2008

Michigan rushing offense vs. Michigan State rushing defense: Junior running back Brandon Minor had a breakout game against Penn State last week. His 117 yards weren’t a career high, but they moved Minor to the top of the depth chart. If Minor can hold onto the ball, he should be a weapon against Michigan State.

The Spartans’ rushing defense is ranked eighth in the Big Ten, and it has allowed opponents an average of 145 yards on the ground per game. Michigan’s offensive line hasn’t exactly been dominant so far this season. The Wolverines are ninth in the conference in rushing offense. But Michigan’s combination up front should be the same as it was against Penn State, when it opened big holes for Minor to start the game.

Edge: Push

Michigan passing offense vs. Michigan State passing defense: Michigan fans should hope redshirt freshman quarterback Steven Threet kept his right elbow encased in bubble wrap this week. Threet has been struggling with a bruised throwing elbow since the Toledo game. When he aggravated it at Penn State, Threet had to come out of the game. The results were not good.

Even if Threet is 100 percent on Saturday, Michigan will struggle to move the ball through the air. Senior safety Otis Wiley can be a game-changer in the Spartan secondary. Wiley has already had two games with two interceptions this year. If the Wolverines want to gain yardage on Wiley and Co., they will need to distribute the ball and force Michigan State to cover receivers other than junior Greg Mathews.

Edge: Michigan State

Michigan State rushing offense vs. Michigan rushing defense: The Wolverines' missed tackles and poor pursuit angles have turned opponents' short gains into big plays all season. At Penn State, Nittany Lion running back Eric Royster averaged almost ten yards every time he ran the ball. And Michigan State has a better running back.

The Spartan offense runs on the legs of Javon Ringer. Until last week’s letdown against Ohio State, he was mentioned as a possible Heisman candidate. Even after the loss, he’s still second in the nation in rushing yards. Although he might be a little short and lacks breakaway speed, he should be able to break into the Michigan secondary regularly. People knocked on former Michigan running back Mike Hart for the same reasons, and he played some pretty good games in this rivalry.

Edge: Michigan State

Michigan State passing offense vs. Michigan passing defense: Michigan is 95th in the country in pass defense. The cornerbacks haven’t lived up to preseason expectations, and the defensive line has been neutralized in the last few weeks. But it should get a bit easier for the defensive line, because Brian Hoyer isn’t a dual threat like Juice Williams and Daryll Clark.

Hoyer is expected to play Saturday, despite injuring his hand and head last week. But many in the Spartan fan base are calling for backup Kirk Cousins to start instead. As long as the quarterback can put the ball in Ringer's hands and limit mistakes when he’s called upon to throw, he won’t be the deciding factor in the game.

Edge: Michigan

Special teams: Before last week, the lone bright spot on Michigan’s special teams was punter Zoltan Mesko. After getting a punt blocked and kicking the safety punt out of bounds, even he has shown flaws. He should be back to form this week, but the fumbles on kick returns will likely remain.

The Spartans have a reliable kicker in Brett Swenson (15-for-16). If the game goes down to a field goal, Michigan State has the advantage.

Edge: Michigan State

Intangibles: Where to begin? First, there’s Michigan junior defensive end Brandon Graham’s guarantee that Michigan will win, despite the fact that Michigan State is the clear favorite. Second, there’s the ramifications of a brawl that took place between the Michigan State hockey and football teams, which could result in the suspension of some Spartan football players.

Realistically, it’s just the standard amount of distractions that surround an in-state rivalry game. In the end, it all evens out.

Edge: Push

Prediction: Michigan State will win 20-16.