Do or die. Win or go home.

Last week's USCHO.com NCAA Tournament projections didn't include No. 14 Michigan, the first time all season the Wolverines had been absent from the bracket. But the fallout from the weekend's action has the Wolverines slotted as the 13th seed out of a field of 16 teams - still anything but a lock to make it.

That makes this weekend's best-of-three series against Ferris State in the CCHA Tournament quarterfinals the biggest games of the year. All year long, the Wolverines clung to their reputation and preseason hype, maintaining a high ranking despite putting up a 9-12-4 record in the last three months.

Now the picture is clear. The voters are no longer caught up in the Michigan tradition, or the potential of a promising freshman class. With a win, Michigan can breathe easy before the official bracket is released. A loss would likely leave the Wolverines on the outside looking in - a fate almost unimaginable for a team that climbed to the nation's top spot in the polls on two separate occasions earlier this year.

Fortunately for the Wolverines, this weekend's must-win games will be played in the friendly confines of Yost Ice Arena, where they hold a 12-6-1 record. The Wolverines took advantage of a first-round bye to get some rest and regroup after a disappointing Senior Night loss. The Bulldogs had to battle a physical Ohio State team on Friday and Saturday night's to get into this weekend's second-round matchup.

Ferris State enters Friday night's game riding a wave of momentum. The Bulldogs have won three games in a row, a streak that began with a 4-3 overtime win on the Wolverines' Senior Night. Michigan held a 3-0 lead after the second period before falling apart in that game.

The two keys to the series will be goaltending and first-strike offense. Bulldog goalie Mitch O'Keefe refused to let Ferris State full to Ohio State in the first round of the CCHA Tournament, allowing just one goal in the sweep. Meanwhile, the Wolverines have been locked in a frustrating game of musical goaltenders all season long due to the inconsistent play of both senior Noah Ruden and freshman Billy Sauer. Michigan coach Red Berenson may not make a final decision as to who will start until after Thursday's practice.

The first goal could determine who wins each game. Despite losing to Ferris State after racing to a 3-0 lead, the Wolverines hold a stellar 12-3-2 record when they get on the board first. The Bulldogs are 11-5-7 when scoring first. Ferris State also holds a 7-5 record in one-goal games compared to Michigan's disappointing 3-5 mark - a disturbing stat for the Wolverines given the close nature of playoff games. After winning the Mason Cup last year, the Wolverines will need another string tournament to seal a NCAA bid.

More quarterfinal action will take place less than an hour away from Ann Arbor where Michigan State will host Alaska-Fairbanks inside East Lansing's Munn Ice Arena. The Nanooks swept Notre Dame last weekend. Their reward for advancing? A date with one of the hottest teams in the nation. The fourth-ranked Spartans have won six of their last seven games - including a sweep of No. 2 Miami. Winning at Munn Ice Arena will be a tough task for Alaska-Fairbanks. Spartan goalie Jeff Lerg has been a wall in his freshman season - posting an impressive 1.98 goals-against average. His cousin Bryan Lerg is tied with captain Drew Miller for the team high in points with 34. The duo leads an offense that provides just enough scoring - the Spartans average less than three goals per game - for a smothering defense that holds opponents to an average of 2.34 goals per game. Even more impressive is Michigan State's 10-4 record in one-goal games and its 11-4-3 home record.

There is no question that the Spartans will make the NCAA tournament - right now they are the fifth seed in the projected bracket - but if they can stay hot and win the conference tournament, they have a shot at claiming one of the four No. 1 seeds. Michigan State took seven out of a possible eight point from Alaska-Fairbanks during the regular season and appears to be headed towards two more victories over the Nanooks.

One of the most intriguing matchups in the quarterfinals takes place in Oxford where Miami hosts Western Michigan. Despite finishing 11th in the conference, the Broncos went to Sault Ste. Marie and stunned the home fans by sweeping the Lake Superior State last weekend. Despite the first-round success, Western Michigan has been abysmal away from Lawson Arena - posting a 3-13-4 record.

On the flip side, Miami won the CCHA regular season title by a comfortable margin. The RedHawks are 12-2-2 at home, including a series sweep of the Broncos in January. Part of Miami's No.