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2006-11-01

Saturday, February 11, 2012

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Balance of power: Races to watch

BY ANDREW GROSSMAN AND WALTER NOWINSKI

Published November 1, 2006

Senate

Northeast

Connecticut

Incumbent Joseph Lieberman (I), Ned Lamont (D), Alan Schlesinger (R)

Lieberman, a four-term incumbent criticized by many Democrats for being too close to President Bush, lost his party's nomination to businessman Lamont. Now, he looks set to keep the seat as an independent. He will still sit on the Democratic side of the aisle if he wins. But watch for Schlesinger to play the spoiler in this oddball race.

Rhode Island

Incumbent Lincoln Chafee (R), Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

Chafee, one of the most liberal Republicans in the Senate, is likely to lose this seat to former Rhode Island Attorney General Whitehouse. The state is becoming increasingly Democratic, and Chafee has tried hard to maintain his independence from the national Republican Party. He didn't vote for President Bush in 2004,writing in the elder Bush's name instead.

New Jersey

Incumbent Robert Menendez (D), Thomas Kean Jr. (R)

New Jersey could be the only Republican Senate seat pickup on Tuesday. The seat's former occupant, Democrat Jon Corzine, appointed Menendez last year after Corzine was elected governor. Kean is the son of former Republican Gov. Thomas Kean, who co-chaired the Sept. 11 commission. The younger Kean's last name is perhaps his greatest asset, and his father's moderate reputation will help the GOP in its efforts to win a seat in this heavily Democratic state. The national Republican Party has been pouring money into New Jersey.

Mid-Atlantic

Pennsylvania

Incumbent Rick Santorum (R), Bob Casey Jr. (D)

Outspoken cultural conservatism definitely has a place in America. Unfortunately for Santorum, the voters of Pennsylvania don't seem to believe it is in their state. He won a comfortable victory in 2000, but his support has steadily eroded since then. Although Santorum's suburban base is still strong, Casey, his pro-life Democratic challenger, appeals to rural voters, leaving Santorum trailing badly in the polls. It will take more than family values to save the third-most powerful Republican senator on Election Day.

South

Tennessee

Bob Corker (R), Harold Ford Jr. (D)

Ford, an alum of the University Law School, is facing off against the former Republican mayor of Chattanooga to succeed retiring GOP Senator Bill Frist. Ford is a moderate congressman from a well-connected political dynasty and has transformed what should have been a safe Republican seat into one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. But Bob Corker has edged out a slim lead in recent weeks as national Republicans determined to hold control of the Senate have made a stand in Tennessee. If there is a Democratic tidal wave on Tuesday, look for Ford to win this Senate seat. Otherwise you can expect a long night of ballot counting in Chattanooga.

Virginia

Incumbent George Allen (R), James Webb (D)

Allen was heavily favored to win this seat earlier in the year, but a series of gaffes has given Webb, the former Reagan administration Navy Secretary, a foothold. First, Allen called an Indian-American Webb volunteer "macaca," then he appeared uneasy when he learned about his Jewish heritage. Now Webb, the author of several war novels, is on the ropes with a bizarre scandal of his own. Allen is attacking Webb for some graphic scenes in those books, which depict incest, prostitution, homosexuality and pedophilia. The race is within the margin of error in most polls.

Midwest

Ohio

Incumbent Mike DeWine (R), Sherrod Brown (D)

The Ohio Republican Party that carried George W. Bush to re-election in 2004 is in the midst of a meltdown. Gov. Bob Taft and Rep. Bob Ney (R-Zanesville) have both been indicted on corruption charges. Republicans were initially optimistic that DeWine would be able to hold his seat against Brown, but recent polls show DeWine trailing badly. The Republican National Committee decided DeWine was a lost cause and pulled out of Ohio. Unless DeWine can single-handedly change the political environment in Ohio, look for this seat to go Democratic.

Missouri

Incumbent Jim Talent (R), Claire McCaskill (D)

Talent is seeking his first full term in office after narrowly winning his seat in a special election in 2002. The Democratic state auditor, Claire McCaskill, is challenging Talent's re-election hopes. According to the polls, the Missouri senate race is one of the closest in the nation; this race is likely going to be decided by election-day Get Out The Vote efforts. Missouri's Democrats hope that a minimum-wage ballot proposal will lure the party faithful to the polls and deliver McCaskill the election.

West

Montana

Incumbent Conrad Burns (R), Jon Tester (D)

In what once was the reddest of red states, Tester, an organic farmer, has mounted a serious threat to Burns.