While there were no major BCS shake-ups this past holiday
weekend, the Wolverines, BCS No. 4, still have a chance to back
their way into the No. 2 slot in the standings after next
weekend.

There is precedence for a jump like this on the last Saturday of
the season. In 1998, the first year of the BCS, No. 1 Tennessee,
No. 2 UCLA and No. 3 Kansas State all played on the final Saturday.
Tennesee beat Mississippi State, UCLA lost to Miami (Fla.) and
Kansas State lost to Texas A&M, opening the door for one-loss
No. 4 Florida State to join the Volunteers in the Fiesta Bowl. Here
are the scenarios for the Bowl Championship Series.

Saturday’s games:

— No. 1 Oklahoma v. Kansas State (Big 12 Championship
game)

— No. 2 Southern Cal. v. Oreegon State

— No. 3 Louisiana State v. No. 7 Georgia (SEC championship
game)

Scenario 1 — Oklahoma wins, Southern Cal. wins,
Louisiana State wins. Unless the Tigers received enough of a boost
in strength of schedule and in the computers by beating the
Bulldogs, Oklahoma and Southern Cal. would play for the title.

Scenario 2 — Oklahoma wins, Southern Cal. loses,
Louisiana State wins. Oklahoma and Louisiana State play for the
title.

Scenario 3 — Oklahoma wins, Southern Cal. wins,
Louisiana State loses. Oklahoma and Southern Cal. play for the
title.

Scenario 4 — Oklahoma wins, Southern Cal. loses,
Louisiana State loses. Odds are, Oklahoma and Michigan would play
for the BCS title. If Oklahoma lost to Michigan, the Wolverines
would win the BCS national championship (Coaches’ poll), and
Oklahoma would likely win the AP poll vote, by virtue of its better
record than Michigan (the Coaches’ poll is obligated to vote
the BCS title game winner as its national champion).

Scenario 5 — Oklahoma loses, Southern Cal. loses,
Louisiana State loses. A one-loss Oklahoma plays two-loss Michigan
for all the marbles, unlike Scenario 4.

Who will Michigan play, assuming the Wolverines go to
Pasadena?

BCS conference champions to choose from: Michigan (Big
Ten), Miami (Big East), Florida State (Atlantic Coast), Southern
Cal. (Pac-10), the Oklahoma/Kansas State winner (Big 12) and the
Louisiana State/Georgia winner (SEC).

At-large possibilities: No. 5 Ohio State, No. 6 Texas,
No. 8 Tennessee and (if it loses to Georgia) Louisiana State.

Here’s how it will shake down after the Sugar Bowl is set
(let’s assume it’s Oklahoma and Southern Cal.). The
Fiesta Bowl will choose the first team, because its tie-in,
Oklahoma, is not available. After the Fiesta Bowl chooses, the Rose
Bowl gets next choice for Michigan’s opponent. The Fiesta
Bowl gets another choice, leaving the Orange Bowl with the last two
choices available. Here is a possible lineup.

Sugar: Oklahoma v. Southern Cal.

Fiesta: Texas v. Florida State

Rose: Michigan v. SEC champion

Orange: Miami v. Ohio State