Is "Lost" losing its swagger? In a surprise upset, CBS's sophomore crime drama "Criminal Minds" recently usurped "Lost" as the most watched show on Wednesday nights. "Criminal Minds" inched out "Lost" in viewers for the week of October 30 to November 5, garnering 16.97 million viewers to "Lost's" 16.07. The show maintained its lead the following week despite a heavily promoted cliffhanger on "Lost."

"Criminal Minds" couldn't have come at a more inopportune time for "Lost," which is going on a three-month hiatus before returning in February with 16 back-to-back episodes.

The move to split up the season arose after fans griped that blocks of repeats between new episodes during season two were detrimental to the flow of the serial-style show. This new approach, as executive producer Carlton Cuse explained to Entertainment Weekly, "became the compromise" between delaying the entire season until January and continuing clusters of reruns.

Other shows with highly complex narratives have delayed their starting time to January with great success. Fox's "24" began its fifth season in January 2006, running without repeats until May sweeps. This strategy paid off well: "24" posted 14 percent gains in total viewers over the previous season, as well as wins in all the key demographics.

It seems a similar strategy should have been the obvious decision for ABC producers. Fans may be both fickle and forgetful, but an established show like "Lost" can maintain momentum even in such a long break. In fact, it's plausible the extended wait could increase anticipation among faithful fans.

"Lost" creators, according to Cuse, thought starting in January "would have meant eight months between finishing the second season and starting the next one, which (they) felt was way too long."

What they seemed to forget is that viewers crave a consistent schedule. Even though "Lost" would have be off the air for eight months, once it came on it would play weekly for five months, allowing for viewers to make the show a habitual, ingrained hour of their week.

By splitting up the season, ABC has transformed one of its most popular shows from a viewer's reliable friend to an unpredictable lover. Even though the quality of television's writing and production value has become more akin to film, it will never be the event entertainment movies are. Television will always be, in some part, the medium of comfort entertainment. By inhabiting the same hour each week, a show becomes part of the fabric of viewers' weekly schedules. This reliability is essential to the success of any television show, especially a serial style series like "Lost."

It has been speculated, however, that the move to break up the season was actually a ploy to gain future viewers. With the first six episodes of season three streaming for free on ABC.com and the previous seasons released on DVD, producers may have felt that potential viewers needed time to catch up before releasing a spree of new episodes.

This seems ludicrous as well, since a longer wait would allow more people a chance to catch up on what they've missed. Once the season started, viewers would be able to stay on track through the online version of the show and breaks would be unnecessary.

But in the end, the drop in ratings for "Lost" may signal a creative drought rather than scheduling issues. Many have complained that the show poses far more questions than it answers. It's interesting to note that competitor "Criminal Minds" features a fresh issue each week that's resolved within the hour. Could it be that frustrated "Lost" fans are only continuing to watch because they've already invested so much time?

To make things worse, there have also been rumblings that the recent cliffhanger was less than groundbreaking. The uninspired ending, combined with well-reviewed replacement "Daybreak" may spell out the premature demise of one of television's most lauded programs. It remains to be seen whether ABC's plan succeeds in wooing back an audience it has already begun to lose.