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News analysis: Dingell's campaign moves suggest race for 15th district might be closest in years

BY MIKE MERAR
Daily Staff Reporter
Published October 13, 2010

Though United States Rep. John Dingell (D–Mich.) is somewhat of an institution in the 15th District, he has been recently amping up his campaign activity in the waning weeks of this election season, suggesting he may not hold the comfortable lead his campaign has enjoyed in the past.

In his last re-election bid, Dingell rode easily to victory, besting his challenger by a 45-percent margin. In this election season however — mirroring Democratic electoral hardships around the country — it appears as though Dingell's race might be closer than usual. In recent weeks, Dingell's press office has highlighted a slew of federal appropriations the 28-term congressman has secured for the district. Furthermore, both Dingell and his Republican opponent Rob Steele's campaigns have been hard at work organizing rallies on campus. Both have also been disputing recent polling data, indicating that this year might be one of the closest races for the 15th district in recent election cycles.

As part of the race, Dingell and Steele brought their campaigns to campus this week. Former President Bill Clinton and other Democratic candidates spoke at a Dingell for Congress rally on Sunday at Rackham Auditorium. Likewise, Steele’s campaign held a rally on the Diag Wednesday night.

Though a recent poll published on the race by the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV shows Dingell ahead by a 17-percent margin, polls throughout the race have varied.

According to another recent poll, Dingell was trailing Steele by four points in the race. The results of the poll showed Steele leading with 43.8 percent of the vote, compared to Dingell’s 39.5 percent, leaving about 11 percent of voters undecided and Dingell supporters concerned. Dingell is the longest-serving U.S. congressman with 55 years in the House under his belt.

Following the release of the Oct. 8 poll, the Dingell campaign claimed that The Rossman Group, one of the two partnering firms that conducted the poll, has Republican ties.

Conducted by TelCom in partnership with The Rossman Group, the poll consisted of an automated phone survey of a random sample of 300 voters across Michigan’s 15th congressional district.

Betsy Barrett, communications director for Dingell’s campaign, wrote in an e-mail interview that the polling group has definitive ties to the Republican Party. She added that the Dingell campaign’s own polling has Dingell up by double digits.

“This is a GOP poll conducted by a firm with GOP ties masquerading as an independent poll,” Barrett wrote.

Steele, however, said he thinks The Rossman Group poll’s results are accurate, and he doesn’t think the polling organizations have any ties to the GOP. He said he feels very good about his position going into the last leg of the race.

“(Dingell’s) approval rating is not going up,” Steele said. “My approval rating over the four polls has gone up significantly, and my name recognition has gone up significantly.”

Josh Hovey, senior account executive for The Rossman Group, said the company’s poll produced accurate results and is consistent with other polls.

“It’s fairly reliable,” Hovey said. “Our polls on a statewide level, at least, have shown that we’ve been within the margin of error of every other major poll.”

Adrienne Hansel, chief operating officer of Team TelCom, wrote in an e-mail interview that the results of the poll are accurate.

“Numbers from our statewide automated polls that we have conducted in the past eight weeks are statistically in the margin of error as all other publicly published polls that use live callers to gather the data,” Hansel wrote.

Both Hovey and Hansel said their firms don’t have ties to any political party.

“Ownership of our firm is bi-partisan ... (and our) goal is to do the best job of providing accurate data to our clients,” Hansel wrote. “We do work for both Republicans and Democrats.


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