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At campus event, Mich. political expert predicts gov. race is 'Snyder's to lose'

Salam Rida/Daily
Michigan political pundit & editor of “Inside Michigan Politics”, Bill Ballenger visits School of Public Policy on September 15, 2010. Buy this photo

BY STEPHANIE BERLIANT
Daily Staff Reporter
Published September 15, 2010

Michigan political pundit Bill Ballenger gave his predictions for the state's upcoming midterm elections at a campus event last night.

Speaking to a crowd of about 100 people at the Ford School of Public Policy, Ballenger discussed each of the November elections, including the race for governor, State Senate, State House and State Supreme Court. He said the goal of the talk wasn’t to sway voters towards either party, but to inform them about which races he views as important.

A former state senator, Ballenger predicted a better year for the Republicans than in 2006 and 2008, adding that he expects Republicans will continue to control the State Senate 21-17. He added that he thought Republicans will likely make gains in the State House, though the make up there will still likely be 50 Republicans to 62 Democrats.

The race for governor is “(Republican candidate) Rick Snyder’s to lose,” Ballenger said, adding that one out of five people polled had no name recognition of the Democratic candidate, Lansing mayor Virg Bernero, whose disapproval rating is higher than his approval.

As editor and publisher of the political newsletter Inside Michigan Politics, Ballenger said his is the only newsletter in the country to make political predictions — and that 88 percent of its predictions for this year's Michigan primaries were accurate.

In addition to his predictions, Ballenger also emphasized the importance of the Supreme Court judges’ race.

Historically, in census years, Supreme Court justices are crucial in determining the reapportionment of state representatives across a given state, Ballenger said. He added that usually one-third of voters don’t vote for a Supreme Court candidate in the election because they don’t know the candidates.

Additionally, all 15 members of Congress from Michigan are on the ballot, though Ballenger said he believes this will be the last year Michigan will have that many representatives.

The number has dropped from 19 in 1982 and will likely continue to decrease due to Michigan’s shrinking population, he said. The eighth-largest state by population currently, Ballenger said Michigan is at risk of losing two representatives by 2020.

Ballenger also discussed the election for the University’s Board of Regents. Two regents are up for reelection this election cycle. Ballenger noted that Michigan is the only state to elect higher education regents through a state-wide election.

In recent years, Democrats have held a 6-2 majority on the University’s Board of Regents. This year, the board’s two Republican members are up for reelection.

Following Ballenger’s talk, Pat Cooley, a second-year student at the Ford School of Public Policy, facilitated a question-and-answer session.

In an interview after the event, Cooley — a member of the Association for Public Policy about Learning and Education, the organization that hosted the event — raved about Ballenger’s insights, saying it’s important to be knowledgeable about current events and politics.

“Bill Ballenger is a political insider. He knows everything that’s going on in Michigan politics,” Cooley said. “It’s great to have an education in state politics because it affects all of our lives.”

Ruth Brown, a Public Policy first-year masters’ student, said she found the event informative.

“It presented a non-partisan view of the election. I just moved to Michigan and am a registered voter,” Brown said. “Voters usually know so little when they go into the polls. I feel pretty informed now.”


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