There’s one thing I know for sure — Greg Paulus is NOT going to be Michigan’s quarterback next year.

It’s almost a certainty — unless redshirt junior Nick Sheridan has a ridiculous turnaround in August practices — that a freshman is going to take the first snap of the 2009 season. And Michigan fans have to take a deep breath, forget about all the hype newcomer Tate Forcier stirred up after a surprisingly mature-looking performance in the Spring Game and realize that freshmen quarterbacks almost always have huge learning curves.

You don’t have to look further than Michigan’s own past to realize that. Both John Navarre and Chad Henne started impressive careers by struggling through freshmen campaigns. Henne posted impressive numbers — 2,743 yards and 25 touchdowns — but there’s no question that those numbers had a lot more to do with his receivers.

Braylon Edwards, Jason Avant and Steve Breaston — all three of whom are in the NFL — aren't bad targets, and even though Michigan boasts a pretty talented receiving corps this season, Forcier or incoming freshman Denard Robinson won’t have the same luxury. Because the receivers were so good, former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr could run a simpler package for Henne during his freshman season.

And I’m sure many Michigan fans remember the trials and tribulations of Navarre’s freshman effort — he limped to a 51-percent completion percentage and struggled through a UCLA game that the Wolverines ended up losing.

Forcier is obviously the front-runner for the job and he’ll have his hands full. He will struggle at times to understand the system and adapt to the speed of college football. But he’s got a few skills that will help him shed some of the things that usually hurt young quarterbacks.

One: He’s confident. Forcier has no reservations about the fact that he’s a good quarterback capable of getting the job done. If that confidence doesn’t waiver after a few bad throws, he’ll be able to bounce back from the inevitable mistakes he will make.

Two: He can run. When Pat White was running Rodriguez’s offense at West Virginia, he used his legs to take some of the pressure off his arm. If Forcier can establish himself as a legitimate spread-option threat, that will only mean good things for the Wolverines. If you saw the Spring Game, you know that Forcier’s speed and athleticism were showcased — that’s definitely a good sign for the future.

Three: He’s comfortable in the spread. Forcier has been running a spread offense for a long time, and although Michigan’s system is more complex than what he ran in high school, at least he has some familiarity with it.

As long as he doesn’t let the expectations get to his head, Forcier should be a good fit in the offense. Just don’t expect him to win the Heisman Trophy or anything like that this year — he’ll need some time to get acquainted with everything.

Then there’s Denard Robinson, who didn't have the pleasure of spending the winter semester in Ann Arbor, like Forcier. But he’s got a pretty strong arm and can flat-out run.

Ideally, I would like to see Robinson become a sort of change-of-pace guy who comes in for 10 to 15 plays a game, because I don’t think he’s going to be too ready this season.

“I haven’t seen Denard yet,” Rodriguez said at Big Ten Media Day. “It’s going to be fun to watch (him and Forcier).”

Robinson just hasn’t had the same time to become as familiarized with the playbook as Forcier. Rodriguez hasn’t even been able to assess him and still won’t until well into August. But he can definitely make a contribution to the team.

It’s going to be very frustrating for a team to have to prepare for both Forcier and Robinson — even if Robinson is only playing a few snaps a game.

And as much as I think Sheridan is a good guy and Michigan fans should be thankful that he stepped up last year — even though he had his troubles — the best role he could have in 2009 is as an impromptu quarterbacks coach.

Key Losses — Steven Threet, transfer to Arizona State
Projected starters — Tate Forcier
Newcomer(s) to watch — Forcier and Denard Robinson

Overall impressions — It’ll be an interesting season for the quarterbacks, to be sure. There will be ups and there will most certainly be downs, but it will be fun. Michigan fans should take pleasure in seeing Forcier develop in front of their eyes — because by his senior campaign, he’ll definitely be a star.