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Bursting the bubble: Who Michigan should root for this week if it wants a chance to make the NCAA Tournament

BY THE MICHIGAN DAILY BASKETBALL BEAT

Published March 2, 2009



Michigan men’s basketball fans have been obsessing over the proverbial NCAA Tournament Bubble to see where the Wolverines stand. To make it easier on you, here’s a list of must-see games:

Kansas State at Oklahoma State, Tuesday at 7:30 p.m.
Root for Oklahoma State

Both of these teams were featured on this week’s “Bubble Watch” on ESPN, so Michigan fans should watch this game with a very vested interest. The Wildcats appear to be on the outside looking in, with a terrible strength of schedule (98) and subpar RPI (73), but another win would certainly help. Since the Cowboys are probably already in the tournament, the Wolverine faithful will want to see them bury Kansas State on Tuesday.

No. 10 Wake Forest at Maryland, Tuesday at 9 p.m.
Root for Wake Forest

On Feb. 21, Maryland guard Greivis Vasquez had the game of his life. Against then-No. 3 North Carolina, Vasquez had the first Terrapin triple-double since 1987 while scoring a career-high 35 points. His effort was just enough to topple the Tar Heels in overtime and start some serious NCAA Tournament buzz for the Terrapins. Right now, Maryland is right on the bubble, but beating No. 10 Wake Forest tonight would almost certainly get them in. This is Maryland's last shot at a big win before the ACC Tournament, so Michigan needs Wake Forest to win.

No. 2 North Carolina at Virginia Tech, Wednesday at 7:00 p.m.
Root for North Carolina

All season, the Hokies have not quite been good enough to reach "elite" status. They have seven losses of four points or less. Like Michigan, Virginia Tech has been on the bubble as of late, and it definitely needs one more quality win to make the NCAA Tournament. North Carolina can keep the Hokies out of the tournament, and you’d be a fool to say the Tar Heels aren’t a lock for the Big Dance. Suck it up and root for the top dog.

Wisconsin at Minnesota, Wednesday at 8:30 p.m.
Root for Wisconsin

One month ago, after six straight Badger losses, this game would have meant much more to Wisconsin than Minnesota. But after the Badgers reeled off five straight wins in February, including victories against Illinois, Penn State and Ohio State, Wisconsin is sitting pretty leading up to the NCAA Tournament. The Golden Gophers have lost five of their last seven and need to win one of its last two games to finish .500 in conference play. The Wolverines want Wisconsin to win because they need to finish above Minnesota in the Big Ten standings.

Providence at No. 16 Villanova, Thursday at 7:00 p.m.
Root for Villanova

Providence's tournament hopes looked pretty bleak after losses to Louisville and Notre Dame. But last week, the Friars catapulted their way back onto the bubble with their 81-73 upset over then-No. 1 Pittsburgh. It was the quality conference win Providence had been struggling to get all season. The Friars have one more shot Thursday night in their regular-season finale. If they beat Villanova on the road, they are probably in. Michigan wants a Wildcat win. That would put pressure on Providence to pull off some upsets in the Big East Tournament in order to earn a tournament spot.

No. 23 Illinois at Penn State, Thursday at 9:00 p.m.
Root for Illinois

Why are you hearing about Penn State? The Nittany Lions are tied for fourth place in the Big Ten and 1.5 games ahead of Michigan. You’d think Penn State is a lock, but its lousy strength of schedule rating can hold it back from an at-large bid. Penn State has wins against Purdue and Michigan State boost its tournament résumé, but not much else helps. If the Nittany Lions win, they will distance themselves from the Wolverines in the conference standings and the race to make the tournament. Michigan doesn't want that to happen.

California at Arizona, Thursday at 10:30 p.m.
Root for California

Both Arizona and California failed to cash in on what would have been quality résumé-building wins Saturday. The Wildcats let a halftime lead slip away at then-No.